Phase 3: Israel's Military and Diplomatic Objectives
14 January 2009
Israel's military operation in Gaza has gone through its first two phases; intense destruction of Hamas military and regime installations (beginning Dec. 27) through aerial bombardment and the beginning of the ground assault on Jan. 3 which has cut the Strip in half between Gaza City and Deir el-Balah. Concurrently the UN passed Res. 1860 calling for a cease-fire and immediate Israeli withdrawal but established no formula for implementation. Khaled Mashal of the Hamas political office in Damascus has announced the outright rejection of the resolution which also called for the end of smuggling of arms and ammunition. Leading the Hamas charge he has demanded continued "resistance" until ultimate victory. Mashal also rejects any supervision of the border crossings with Egypt, the closing of the tunnels and the accompanying weapons shipments and the stationing of an international force in Gaza – just another "occupation" in his words.
Immediate Israeli objectives are clear:
- A halt to all rocket attacks.
- The end of tunneling under the border from Egyptian to Palestinian Rafiah.
- All crossings are to be monitored including international personnel and Israeli technical apparatus at least.
With Egypt more deeply involved, foreign envoys are shuttling between Cairo and Jerusalem seeking a diplomatic solution, especially in the light of the civilian casualties broadcast world wide. However, Israel must decide whether to move into Stage 3 of the overall operation, meaning deeper penetration and conquest of the major urban areas, or at least Gaza City in order to flush out Hamas and destroy its military capabilities in the northern part of the Strip. In the far south the Philadelphi border line with Egypt needs to be cleared of the 500 – 600 tunnels either by aerial bombardment, ground activity or both. The cities in the southern and central part of the Strip may be bypassed. Should the army become static do to lack of activity it will become a sitting duck and encourage Hamas raids. Entering into Phase 3 will put pressure on the diplomatic front yet expose Israel to more casualties and intense urban warfare which could boomerang internationally and on the battlefield. Very unfortunately, there will be more civilian casualties – the most powerful weapon wielded by Hamas. Not moving into Phase 3 will leave much of the Hamas military and political infrastructure intact not withstanding continual claims by Israel of having inflicted major damage on the ability of the organization to function in both spheres. There are almost too many dilemmas even if one only considers the objectives mentioned above.
The Cast Lead operation aims to undercut Hamas strength and influence a shift away from Islamic extremism. To do so Egypt will need to take a leading role in containing Hamas once the military conflict subsides. The Egyptian side of Rafiah is in dire need of intense monitoring to halt tunnel activity but it appears only international cooperation will lead to the desired shutdown. Posting foreign troops on Egyptian soil would be seen as an infringement of sovereignty yet Pres. Hosni Mubarak is said to be considering civilian technicians whom could also be used to monitor the legal Rafiah crossing.
Once in place, the Israel – Gaza border should be sealed and the Strip reconnected to Egypt, at least for the immediate future. There is no reason Gazans should be entering Israel especially since the Hamas Covenant calls for the extermination of the State of Israel and death to Jews. Sermons by Moslem Brotherhood preachers constantly de-humanize Jews calling them "pigs", "monkeys" and "dogs". Gaza is an enemy entity and Israel owes Hamas nothing.
The one glaring failure in the operation has been Israel's handling of humanitarian issues. A full humanitarian aid program with complete documentation of efforts to help the civilian population was and is needed. Civilians certainly live in fear but except for the north and Gaza City itself one does not hear of shortages elsewhere and even Aljazeera and CNN have shown well stocked markets during the three hour humanitarian cease-fires from 1- 4PM. Any misfiring of shells needs investigation, as much for Israel's own peace of mind as for an accounting of world public opinion. Israel must be a responsible state authority not only to its own people but even to enemy non-combatants who support the Hamas dictatorship (as of June 2007).
The objective Israel should not attempt is the overthrow of Hamas, it simply cannot be done and the more one will try the sharper the backlash. Hamas should be allowed to administer its Islamic mini-state in Gaza as long as there is no military threat to Israel. Moslem Brotherhood ideals exist in many Palestinian hearts and minds and are can be expressed in civil society devoid of military action.
And lastly, there is too much talk of Israeli "deterrence". As long as Islamist thinking prevails there will be no chance of deterring anyone but only of delaying them. This is not the Cold War where the US and Soviet Union accepted each others' existence and realized the cost of even winning a war was far too high for the victor so each side accepted the status quo. It was also understood that one's adversary had the right to exist. Wars of total victory were not an option. (For much more on this topic known as "delayance" one can contact EC who also writes in these columns and has been doing exhaustive investigative work on this topic.) Hamas must consistently be denied the ability to go to war and be forced to handle civil matters only.
To sum up, Israel is facing Phase 3 decisions having an effect on the outcome of the conflict. More significant however is what diplomatic and security arrangements will be implemented once the firing subsides. Of course Phase 3 and diplomacy in its aftermath are interlocked.
Yisrael Ne'eman
Israel's military operation in Gaza has gone through its first two phases; intense destruction of Hamas military and regime installations (beginning Dec. 27) through aerial bombardment and the beginning of the ground assault on Jan. 3 which has cut the Strip in half between Gaza City and Deir el-Balah. Concurrently the UN passed Res. 1860 calling for a cease-fire and immediate Israeli withdrawal but established no formula for implementation. Khaled Mashal of the Hamas political office in Damascus has announced the outright rejection of the resolution which also called for the end of smuggling of arms and ammunition. Leading the Hamas charge he has demanded continued "resistance" until ultimate victory. Mashal also rejects any supervision of the border crossings with Egypt, the closing of the tunnels and the accompanying weapons shipments and the stationing of an international force in Gaza – just another "occupation" in his words.
Immediate Israeli objectives are clear:
- A halt to all rocket attacks.
- The end of tunneling under the border from Egyptian to Palestinian Rafiah.
- All crossings are to be monitored including international personnel and Israeli technical apparatus at least.
With Egypt more deeply involved, foreign envoys are shuttling between Cairo and Jerusalem seeking a diplomatic solution, especially in the light of the civilian casualties broadcast world wide. However, Israel must decide whether to move into Stage 3 of the overall operation, meaning deeper penetration and conquest of the major urban areas, or at least Gaza City in order to flush out Hamas and destroy its military capabilities in the northern part of the Strip. In the far south the Philadelphi border line with Egypt needs to be cleared of the 500 – 600 tunnels either by aerial bombardment, ground activity or both. The cities in the southern and central part of the Strip may be bypassed. Should the army become static do to lack of activity it will become a sitting duck and encourage Hamas raids. Entering into Phase 3 will put pressure on the diplomatic front yet expose Israel to more casualties and intense urban warfare which could boomerang internationally and on the battlefield. Very unfortunately, there will be more civilian casualties – the most powerful weapon wielded by Hamas. Not moving into Phase 3 will leave much of the Hamas military and political infrastructure intact not withstanding continual claims by Israel of having inflicted major damage on the ability of the organization to function in both spheres. There are almost too many dilemmas even if one only considers the objectives mentioned above.
The Cast Lead operation aims to undercut Hamas strength and influence a shift away from Islamic extremism. To do so Egypt will need to take a leading role in containing Hamas once the military conflict subsides. The Egyptian side of Rafiah is in dire need of intense monitoring to halt tunnel activity but it appears only international cooperation will lead to the desired shutdown. Posting foreign troops on Egyptian soil would be seen as an infringement of sovereignty yet Pres. Hosni Mubarak is said to be considering civilian technicians whom could also be used to monitor the legal Rafiah crossing.
Once in place, the Israel – Gaza border should be sealed and the Strip reconnected to Egypt, at least for the immediate future. There is no reason Gazans should be entering Israel especially since the Hamas Covenant calls for the extermination of the State of Israel and death to Jews. Sermons by Moslem Brotherhood preachers constantly de-humanize Jews calling them "pigs", "monkeys" and "dogs". Gaza is an enemy entity and Israel owes Hamas nothing.
The one glaring failure in the operation has been Israel's handling of humanitarian issues. A full humanitarian aid program with complete documentation of efforts to help the civilian population was and is needed. Civilians certainly live in fear but except for the north and Gaza City itself one does not hear of shortages elsewhere and even Aljazeera and CNN have shown well stocked markets during the three hour humanitarian cease-fires from 1- 4PM. Any misfiring of shells needs investigation, as much for Israel's own peace of mind as for an accounting of world public opinion. Israel must be a responsible state authority not only to its own people but even to enemy non-combatants who support the Hamas dictatorship (as of June 2007).
The objective Israel should not attempt is the overthrow of Hamas, it simply cannot be done and the more one will try the sharper the backlash. Hamas should be allowed to administer its Islamic mini-state in Gaza as long as there is no military threat to Israel. Moslem Brotherhood ideals exist in many Palestinian hearts and minds and are can be expressed in civil society devoid of military action.
And lastly, there is too much talk of Israeli "deterrence". As long as Islamist thinking prevails there will be no chance of deterring anyone but only of delaying them. This is not the Cold War where the US and Soviet Union accepted each others' existence and realized the cost of even winning a war was far too high for the victor so each side accepted the status quo. It was also understood that one's adversary had the right to exist. Wars of total victory were not an option. (For much more on this topic known as "delayance" one can contact EC who also writes in these columns and has been doing exhaustive investigative work on this topic.) Hamas must consistently be denied the ability to go to war and be forced to handle civil matters only.
To sum up, Israel is facing Phase 3 decisions having an effect on the outcome of the conflict. More significant however is what diplomatic and security arrangements will be implemented once the firing subsides. Of course Phase 3 and diplomacy in its aftermath are interlocked.