Demanded: End Game Scenario
16 January 2009
Israel's ground offensive in Gaza is said to be going well. Maybe, but the magnitude of such an operation would have been unnecessary had Israel acted eight years ago when the first rockets were fired. Other opportunities existed in 2002 – 03 when operations almost took place (as Israel was operating in the West Bank) and after the Hamas overthrow of the Palestinian Authority and resulting increased rocket fire in early summer 2007. The latest tahadiya or "calm" from June to December 2008 allowed Hamas to fully arm and begin the latest conflict. A major aerial and ground assault similar to today's in late spring 2008 in response to massive Hamas shelling was in order, not a tahadiya. Instead Jerusalem went the peace seeking, diplomatic route, put off the operation for half a year and today is battling against a much more formidable Hamas adversary.
Hamas will never surrender as witnessed by the latest speeches given by Khaled Mashal and Ismail Haniya. The latter's tone was considered moderate since he spoke of a "cease-fire", but too many commentators get overly excited about such terminology. It must be made clear – Hamas will not accept Israeli, Egyptian/French or international conditions being discussed for the border crossings – at least not for the immediate future. There is far too much talk of how much damage is being suffered by Hamas. Despite reported casualties of over 500 killed and several times that amount wounded the Hamas terror/guerilla force includes thousands more and is far from defeated. True, some commanders have been killed or reportedly fled, while some gunmen have supposedly shed their uniforms and are melting into the civilian population but the main armed force is holed up deep in the urban centers.
Israel's quandary of how to turn a military advantage into a political/diplomatic success has not changed. The military cannot be allowed to stagnate, must continue moving and never provide target practice for the enemy. If there will be an eventual cease-fire the IDF must quickly move out of the urban regions and then withdraw from the rest of the Strip. Otherwise Israel becomes responsible for all civilians living under its control. Although closing in on Gaza City, with no acceptable cease-fire the IDF may be drawn into Phase 3, something not particularly desired by the government. However once embarking upon such a step, it must be taken to the end and seek the capture or death of as many Hamas leaders (military or political) as possible. Foreign sources report much of the Hamas leadership to be hiding in the bunker underneath Shifa Hospital in Gaza City or disguised as medical staff. They will be virtually impossible to apprehend.
Israeli conditions for a cease-fire are known but implementation will not be simple. All the Gaza-Sinai tunnels must be destroyed, only somewhat over half are inoperable due to Israeli Air Force activity over the past three weeks. The Egyptian side must be monitored carefully with the help of foreign technicians. Supposedly Cairo has obtained the equipment to dig an enormous moat of their side of the border. Former Israeli General Uzi Dayan believes such as solution is possible since ground water is fairly high in the region. On the Gazan side the border road must be widened to several hundred meters and international inspectors (European, North American, etc.) posted at the crossings with Israeli electronic surveillance. A multi-national naval force must patrol Gaza's coast where military contraband also arrives, much of it apparently floating just below the water's surface.
Such security measures will render it unimportant as to who rules the Gaza Strip, and whether it be in the quasi-state framework of the Palestinian Authority or not, or even whether elections take place. Palestinian society can decide to be led by Fatah, Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Khomeinists, the Taliban or Al-Qaeda. Obviously it would be preferable to have a liberal democratic western style political party take office but here the possibilities are close to zero.
Israel's captured soldier Gilad Shalit must be returned in any deal. How many Hamas gunmen and activists will be traded for him is uncertain. Those captured in the recent conflict and militants already sitting in Israeli jails would be candidates but all this is a matter of negotiations over lists of those "with blood on their hands", how much blood and the political, military and publicity value of each prisoner.
Hamas caused the "humanitarian crisis" and must be held fully responsible. However, Israel needs to do more to help alleviate Palestinian civilian hardships. No only shipping in food supplies (guarded by international organizations to prevent pilfering by Hamas and other extremists) need to be shipped in but medical equipment is in great need. Israel is considering the establishment of a field hospital on the Gaza border but it is stated that legal questions must first be resolved, the faster the better.
Finally there must be a shift in the Israeli understanding that Hamas, other Islamists and extremists of whatever type will live to fight another day unless they are left disarmed and with no military option. Unfortunately Israel is condemned to be on guard for eternity, never letting Islamism or any other form of extremism challenge the existence of the state or the Jewish People.
Yisrael Ne'eman
Israel's ground offensive in Gaza is said to be going well. Maybe, but the magnitude of such an operation would have been unnecessary had Israel acted eight years ago when the first rockets were fired. Other opportunities existed in 2002 – 03 when operations almost took place (as Israel was operating in the West Bank) and after the Hamas overthrow of the Palestinian Authority and resulting increased rocket fire in early summer 2007. The latest tahadiya or "calm" from June to December 2008 allowed Hamas to fully arm and begin the latest conflict. A major aerial and ground assault similar to today's in late spring 2008 in response to massive Hamas shelling was in order, not a tahadiya. Instead Jerusalem went the peace seeking, diplomatic route, put off the operation for half a year and today is battling against a much more formidable Hamas adversary.
Hamas will never surrender as witnessed by the latest speeches given by Khaled Mashal and Ismail Haniya. The latter's tone was considered moderate since he spoke of a "cease-fire", but too many commentators get overly excited about such terminology. It must be made clear – Hamas will not accept Israeli, Egyptian/French or international conditions being discussed for the border crossings – at least not for the immediate future. There is far too much talk of how much damage is being suffered by Hamas. Despite reported casualties of over 500 killed and several times that amount wounded the Hamas terror/guerilla force includes thousands more and is far from defeated. True, some commanders have been killed or reportedly fled, while some gunmen have supposedly shed their uniforms and are melting into the civilian population but the main armed force is holed up deep in the urban centers.
Israel's quandary of how to turn a military advantage into a political/diplomatic success has not changed. The military cannot be allowed to stagnate, must continue moving and never provide target practice for the enemy. If there will be an eventual cease-fire the IDF must quickly move out of the urban regions and then withdraw from the rest of the Strip. Otherwise Israel becomes responsible for all civilians living under its control. Although closing in on Gaza City, with no acceptable cease-fire the IDF may be drawn into Phase 3, something not particularly desired by the government. However once embarking upon such a step, it must be taken to the end and seek the capture or death of as many Hamas leaders (military or political) as possible. Foreign sources report much of the Hamas leadership to be hiding in the bunker underneath Shifa Hospital in Gaza City or disguised as medical staff. They will be virtually impossible to apprehend.
Israeli conditions for a cease-fire are known but implementation will not be simple. All the Gaza-Sinai tunnels must be destroyed, only somewhat over half are inoperable due to Israeli Air Force activity over the past three weeks. The Egyptian side must be monitored carefully with the help of foreign technicians. Supposedly Cairo has obtained the equipment to dig an enormous moat of their side of the border. Former Israeli General Uzi Dayan believes such as solution is possible since ground water is fairly high in the region. On the Gazan side the border road must be widened to several hundred meters and international inspectors (European, North American, etc.) posted at the crossings with Israeli electronic surveillance. A multi-national naval force must patrol Gaza's coast where military contraband also arrives, much of it apparently floating just below the water's surface.
Such security measures will render it unimportant as to who rules the Gaza Strip, and whether it be in the quasi-state framework of the Palestinian Authority or not, or even whether elections take place. Palestinian society can decide to be led by Fatah, Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Khomeinists, the Taliban or Al-Qaeda. Obviously it would be preferable to have a liberal democratic western style political party take office but here the possibilities are close to zero.
Israel's captured soldier Gilad Shalit must be returned in any deal. How many Hamas gunmen and activists will be traded for him is uncertain. Those captured in the recent conflict and militants already sitting in Israeli jails would be candidates but all this is a matter of negotiations over lists of those "with blood on their hands", how much blood and the political, military and publicity value of each prisoner.
Hamas caused the "humanitarian crisis" and must be held fully responsible. However, Israel needs to do more to help alleviate Palestinian civilian hardships. No only shipping in food supplies (guarded by international organizations to prevent pilfering by Hamas and other extremists) need to be shipped in but medical equipment is in great need. Israel is considering the establishment of a field hospital on the Gaza border but it is stated that legal questions must first be resolved, the faster the better.
Finally there must be a shift in the Israeli understanding that Hamas, other Islamists and extremists of whatever type will live to fight another day unless they are left disarmed and with no military option. Unfortunately Israel is condemned to be on guard for eternity, never letting Islamism or any other form of extremism challenge the existence of the state or the Jewish People.