The EU Contains Obama's Initiative?
21 January 2009
It is not everyday that six major European leaders (PM Gordon Brown – Britain, Pres. Sarkozy – France, Chancellor Merkel – Germany, Pres. Berlusconi – Italy, PM Zapatero – Spain and EU President Todolanek of the Czech Rep.) show up for a one day tour in the Middle East including a stop in Sharm el-Sheikh to give support to Egyptian Pres. Hosni MuBarack and his Saudi counterparts and then continuing on for dinner with Israeli PM Ehud Olmert where they accord full backing to Israeli policy. The uniting factor is to halt Hamas (the Moslem Brotherhood) rearmament and by extension make clear their goal of curtailing extremist Islam and Iran. Israel declared a unilateral cease-fire at 2AM on Jan. 18 and Hamas followed suit half a day later. All this coincided with the European diplomatic initiative. But why so fast?
Call it an end run circumventing Barack Obama. Europe was always thought to be more sympathetic to the Palestinians than the Americans, which they most likely still are, but the EU has learned a few lessons in the past decade. Palestinians, the two state solution and peace initiatives in the Middle East are one thing, battling Islamist extremists is a different game. For all the optimism and enthusiasm in the US and world-wide over the election of Barack Obama the Europeans along with the moderate Arab states and Israel are far from convinced that he understands the issues in this part of the world. Everyone had to move lighting fast, exploiting the last moments of the Bush Administration to ensure a fait accompli of joint EU, Egyptian and Israeli diplomacy. The idea is to box in the new administration.
For incessant criticism of the Bush regime and its refusal to "engage" with Islamic extremists it appears that Europe's political leaders agree with him much more than they are willing to let on. They do consider Hamas a terrorist organization and do not want Khaled Mashal and Ismail Haniya legitimized. They support the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Fatah and the two state solution. Obama has declared his willingness to speak with Islamic extremists including the Iranians. No one knows exactly how serious he is or under what specific conditions discussions could take place, hence no one wants to take chances. With approximately 50 million Moslems living in Europe, with not a few given to Islamist ideas and an apparent rising terrorist threat casting its shadow over the continent the Europeans and the majority of Mideast leaders have pre-empted American diplomacy. America is expected to line up with joint Middle Eastern and EU perspectives by limiting overtures to confined guidelines if they want to engage with radical Islamists.
Obama will be faced with an American commitment to halt the illegal arms smuggling to Gaza (Rice-Livni: Memorandum of Understanding) and his own prerequisite, now emphasized even more fully – that any discussions with whomever, begin with a recognition of Israel's right to exist. Most clearly, the last few days of diplomatic efforts have emphasized moderate Arab and EU fears of Islamic militant activities against their regimes and societies. Some will see here an Israeli diplomatic success but a more accurate appraisal is that the EU is defending its own interests. The same goes for Egypt and its allies. All wanted to pre-empt Obama, fearing a pendulum swing reaching beyond the confines of the joint anti-Islamist interests.
Having noted all of the above the new administration may be working on a handoff and reverse whereby on the threshold of taking office they urged immediate European and Egyptian involvement effectively tying their own hands and forcing an abandonment of campaign declarations intended to show the supposedly glaring differences between themselves and the outgoing Bush Administration. Obama may have made his first foreign policy move two days before assuming power.
Only one factor seems assured, Iran and its allies Syria, Hezbollah, Sudan and radical Islamist organizations will not surrender regardless of the opposing coalition. For Israel, Operation Cast Lead has been a tactical battlefield success but the day of reckoning will arrive when the arms smuggling begins anew and Israel will call upon the EU, the US and the Egyptian led moderates to halt the flow of contraband into Gaza. Most likely this will be Barack Obama's first major foreign policy test.
Yisrael Ne'eman
It is not everyday that six major European leaders (PM Gordon Brown – Britain, Pres. Sarkozy – France, Chancellor Merkel – Germany, Pres. Berlusconi – Italy, PM Zapatero – Spain and EU President Todolanek of the Czech Rep.) show up for a one day tour in the Middle East including a stop in Sharm el-Sheikh to give support to Egyptian Pres. Hosni MuBarack and his Saudi counterparts and then continuing on for dinner with Israeli PM Ehud Olmert where they accord full backing to Israeli policy. The uniting factor is to halt Hamas (the Moslem Brotherhood) rearmament and by extension make clear their goal of curtailing extremist Islam and Iran. Israel declared a unilateral cease-fire at 2AM on Jan. 18 and Hamas followed suit half a day later. All this coincided with the European diplomatic initiative. But why so fast?
Call it an end run circumventing Barack Obama. Europe was always thought to be more sympathetic to the Palestinians than the Americans, which they most likely still are, but the EU has learned a few lessons in the past decade. Palestinians, the two state solution and peace initiatives in the Middle East are one thing, battling Islamist extremists is a different game. For all the optimism and enthusiasm in the US and world-wide over the election of Barack Obama the Europeans along with the moderate Arab states and Israel are far from convinced that he understands the issues in this part of the world. Everyone had to move lighting fast, exploiting the last moments of the Bush Administration to ensure a fait accompli of joint EU, Egyptian and Israeli diplomacy. The idea is to box in the new administration.
For incessant criticism of the Bush regime and its refusal to "engage" with Islamic extremists it appears that Europe's political leaders agree with him much more than they are willing to let on. They do consider Hamas a terrorist organization and do not want Khaled Mashal and Ismail Haniya legitimized. They support the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Fatah and the two state solution. Obama has declared his willingness to speak with Islamic extremists including the Iranians. No one knows exactly how serious he is or under what specific conditions discussions could take place, hence no one wants to take chances. With approximately 50 million Moslems living in Europe, with not a few given to Islamist ideas and an apparent rising terrorist threat casting its shadow over the continent the Europeans and the majority of Mideast leaders have pre-empted American diplomacy. America is expected to line up with joint Middle Eastern and EU perspectives by limiting overtures to confined guidelines if they want to engage with radical Islamists.
Obama will be faced with an American commitment to halt the illegal arms smuggling to Gaza (Rice-Livni: Memorandum of Understanding) and his own prerequisite, now emphasized even more fully – that any discussions with whomever, begin with a recognition of Israel's right to exist. Most clearly, the last few days of diplomatic efforts have emphasized moderate Arab and EU fears of Islamic militant activities against their regimes and societies. Some will see here an Israeli diplomatic success but a more accurate appraisal is that the EU is defending its own interests. The same goes for Egypt and its allies. All wanted to pre-empt Obama, fearing a pendulum swing reaching beyond the confines of the joint anti-Islamist interests.
Having noted all of the above the new administration may be working on a handoff and reverse whereby on the threshold of taking office they urged immediate European and Egyptian involvement effectively tying their own hands and forcing an abandonment of campaign declarations intended to show the supposedly glaring differences between themselves and the outgoing Bush Administration. Obama may have made his first foreign policy move two days before assuming power.
Only one factor seems assured, Iran and its allies Syria, Hezbollah, Sudan and radical Islamist organizations will not surrender regardless of the opposing coalition. For Israel, Operation Cast Lead has been a tactical battlefield success but the day of reckoning will arrive when the arms smuggling begins anew and Israel will call upon the EU, the US and the Egyptian led moderates to halt the flow of contraband into Gaza. Most likely this will be Barack Obama's first major foreign policy test.