Likud Victory? Likud Dilemmas
09 February 2009
Israeli general elections are here and most people were giving it the big "yawn" just a week ago. The outcome appears predictable, former PM Benyamin Netanyahu (1996 – 99) will once again be premier as his right of center Likud faction is expected to take close to 30 seats in the 120 member Knesset. Kadima, led by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Kadima will poll in the vicinity of 25 with former PM and present Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Labor) getting 15 seats. The big surprise is former minister Avigdor Leiberman's Yisrael Beiteinu faction which may receive up to 20 mandates. A right winger, Leiberman is demanding loyalty oaths from Israel's Arabs while quoting anti-Israel statements by Arab MKs and local authorities. In the shadow of the recent Gaza conflict and Hamas/Hezbollah demands for the destruction of Israel, his voter support appears to have surpassed that of Labor. Playing on the fear of Israeli Arabs as a fifth column through support of Israel's enemies and in particular Jihad, has driven many into his camp.
If all goes according to expectations the Haredi (ultra-orthodox) Shas list will obtain at least 10 seats and other religious and right wing factions will pick up another 10 -12 MKs. Netanyahu will have his choice of governments, either a right wing conglomeration with the Likud, Yisrael Beitainu, Shas and the others rightist factions forming a majority coalition of at least 65 or a Center/Right alliance to include the Likud, Kadima and Labor. Questions have arisen as to whether Yisrael Beiteinu and/or Shas would join such a government, although neither would be necessary to have a majority. There is also the question of whether Labor would prefer to redeem its socio-economic platform, lead a left wing opposition or rebuild itself for leadership in a future coalition.
There appear to be no options for a left wing government. Including the MKs from the Arab lists (most of whom are anti-Zionist in one form or another) the Left/Center cannot manage more than 55 seats. Furthermore a Kadima – Labor coalition would not invite anti-Zionist factions into the coalition.
Barring any unexpected events (such as Leiberman supporting Livni and Kadima), Netanyahu will be Israel's next PM. Outside of the economic challenge faced by all he will be expected to participate in a peace process where the outcome is an independent Palestinian State. Barack Obama is now president, not George W. Bush, meaning that Netanyahu's emphasis on an "economic peace" whereby Palestinian areas flourish financially will not cut it in Washington. Right wing commentators are also spewing out the "no state solution" insisting that Egypt reabsorb the Gaza Strip and Jordan take the West Bank. Supposedly Netanyahu is somehow in line with this even if no one consults Cairo or Amman. Neither need increased Palestinian problems, they have enough of their own.
Netanyahu will have to bit the bullet. A hard line Right coalition will lead him nowhere except into American wrath while a more centrist coalition will allow him to share blame with Kadima and Labor. Refusing to debate Livni or Barak he is playing his cards close to the chest, not letting anyone know what he truly thinks.
Will Netanyahu deal as an ideologue, diplomat and statesman or will he continue to be just another Israeli politician? He needs to ensure peace and security, not simple at all. What of disentanglement from the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) and the unavoidable removal of tens of thousands of Jews living in settlements? What of land swaps and security arrangements? Or will he hold on to all and continue the slide into some form of a bi-national state?
Years ago the Likud campaign slogan was, "Only the Likud Can," certainly correct when speaking of peace agreements. If the Right cuts a peace deal the Left will support it guaranteeing a Knesset majority. The ideologically steeped Menachem Begin withdrew from all Sinai to make peace with Egypt and Ariel Sharon disengaged from Gaza and part of northern Samaria. Together, both tore down close to forty settlements something Labor spoke of but never implemented.
Netanyahu knows the playing field. Only once he begins forming a coalition will there be some clue as to his direction.
Yisrael Ne'eman
Israeli general elections are here and most people were giving it the big "yawn" just a week ago. The outcome appears predictable, former PM Benyamin Netanyahu (1996 – 99) will once again be premier as his right of center Likud faction is expected to take close to 30 seats in the 120 member Knesset. Kadima, led by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Kadima will poll in the vicinity of 25 with former PM and present Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Labor) getting 15 seats. The big surprise is former minister Avigdor Leiberman's Yisrael Beiteinu faction which may receive up to 20 mandates. A right winger, Leiberman is demanding loyalty oaths from Israel's Arabs while quoting anti-Israel statements by Arab MKs and local authorities. In the shadow of the recent Gaza conflict and Hamas/Hezbollah demands for the destruction of Israel, his voter support appears to have surpassed that of Labor. Playing on the fear of Israeli Arabs as a fifth column through support of Israel's enemies and in particular Jihad, has driven many into his camp.
If all goes according to expectations the Haredi (ultra-orthodox) Shas list will obtain at least 10 seats and other religious and right wing factions will pick up another 10 -12 MKs. Netanyahu will have his choice of governments, either a right wing conglomeration with the Likud, Yisrael Beitainu, Shas and the others rightist factions forming a majority coalition of at least 65 or a Center/Right alliance to include the Likud, Kadima and Labor. Questions have arisen as to whether Yisrael Beiteinu and/or Shas would join such a government, although neither would be necessary to have a majority. There is also the question of whether Labor would prefer to redeem its socio-economic platform, lead a left wing opposition or rebuild itself for leadership in a future coalition.
There appear to be no options for a left wing government. Including the MKs from the Arab lists (most of whom are anti-Zionist in one form or another) the Left/Center cannot manage more than 55 seats. Furthermore a Kadima – Labor coalition would not invite anti-Zionist factions into the coalition.
Barring any unexpected events (such as Leiberman supporting Livni and Kadima), Netanyahu will be Israel's next PM. Outside of the economic challenge faced by all he will be expected to participate in a peace process where the outcome is an independent Palestinian State. Barack Obama is now president, not George W. Bush, meaning that Netanyahu's emphasis on an "economic peace" whereby Palestinian areas flourish financially will not cut it in Washington. Right wing commentators are also spewing out the "no state solution" insisting that Egypt reabsorb the Gaza Strip and Jordan take the West Bank. Supposedly Netanyahu is somehow in line with this even if no one consults Cairo or Amman. Neither need increased Palestinian problems, they have enough of their own.
Netanyahu will have to bit the bullet. A hard line Right coalition will lead him nowhere except into American wrath while a more centrist coalition will allow him to share blame with Kadima and Labor. Refusing to debate Livni or Barak he is playing his cards close to the chest, not letting anyone know what he truly thinks.
Will Netanyahu deal as an ideologue, diplomat and statesman or will he continue to be just another Israeli politician? He needs to ensure peace and security, not simple at all. What of disentanglement from the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) and the unavoidable removal of tens of thousands of Jews living in settlements? What of land swaps and security arrangements? Or will he hold on to all and continue the slide into some form of a bi-national state?
Years ago the Likud campaign slogan was, "Only the Likud Can," certainly correct when speaking of peace agreements. If the Right cuts a peace deal the Left will support it guaranteeing a Knesset majority. The ideologically steeped Menachem Begin withdrew from all Sinai to make peace with Egypt and Ariel Sharon disengaged from Gaza and part of northern Samaria. Together, both tore down close to forty settlements something Labor spoke of but never implemented.
Netanyahu knows the playing field. Only once he begins forming a coalition will there be some clue as to his direction.