Netanyahu Backed into a Corner?
12 march 2009
Likud PM designate Benyamin Netanyahu is almost in as much trouble if he succeeds in putting together a Right/Religious coalition as opposed to failing in such a venture. After his overtures to the centrist Kadima party were rejected by chairwoman Tsipi Livni over disagreements concerning the "two-state" solution conflict resolution with the Palestinians and the possibility of prime ministerial rotation between the two, Netanyahu is left with only such a narrow coalition option. As such he is open to every form of political blackmail possible.
There is now an agreement with his largest coalition partner Yisrael Beiteinu (15 seats) which included the concession of the foreign ministry to party chairman Avigdor Leiberman along with another four portfolios, a seeming impossibility only three weeks ago when negotiations began. But troubles remain as Leiberman still prefers a partnership with Kadima thereby building a more centrist government at the last moment. On the home front, Netanyahu is increasingly under pressure in his own party, especially by Sylvan Shalom and supporters who expected the vice-premiership and foreign ministry to be theirs. Getting YB into the coalition is the easy part.
Netanyahu is said to be close to an agreement with the ultra-orthodox (haredi) Sephardi Shas (11 mandates) and will try to negotiate down their financial demands for subsidized housing, haredi schools/yeshivas and possibly even a separate education portfolio, increased funding for child allowances and the demand for military draft deferments. Except for the last demand, all this costs billions in an economy which is at least 10% short on tax collection for the as yet to be passed 2009 state budget. Luckily for the Likud Shas spiritual mentor Rabbi Ovadia Yosef will instruct the party to join the coalition, but obviously cannot betray the basic needs of the party electorate meaning the Likud will make all the major concessions necessary.
The Ashkenazi haredi United Torah Judaism (5 seats) faction consults the Council of Torah Sages and can be expected to put forth similar conditions to those of Shas but to settle for less compromises. Shas is a member of the outgoing government while UTJ is not and has proven over the years to be a more difficult junior coalition partner.
Up to here there are 58 mandates out of the 120 in the Knesset. To get to 61 is the biggest problem. The two remaining parties – the National Union (4) and Jewish Home (3) are politically and ideologically connected to the national religious movement and as such demand the legalization of any settlements deemed illegal, continuing settlement activity in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) costing billions and are firmly opposed to a two-state solution. Their foreign policy and settlement platforms vis-à-vis the Palestinians are red flags to the Americans and Europeans. Netanyahu needs at least one of these factions to form an extremely narrow Right/Religious coalition – a nightmare of a governing alliance both financially and in terms of political diplomatic cost. Regime stability is out of the question.
Only twice before has Israel had such Right/Religious coalitions with no centrists to moderate the equation. Only Menachem Begin's second government (1981-84) where Yitzchak Shamir took over after Begin's resignation in the summer of 1983 and Shamir's two year reign from 1990-92. Both governments faced financial and diplomatic pressures due to the demands of the haredi and hard line right wing factions, exactly as today.
Netanyahu knows the realities but is becoming a prisoner to his own rhetoric as leader of the "nationalist" wing in the Knesset. His only way out is also quite unpleasant as he must agree to a prime ministerial rotation agreement with Livni and Kadima while uttering the hated phrase "two-state solution" when explaining the foundations of conflict resolution with the Palestinians. It is one thing to project the image necessary to win an election but coalition building and ruling a country as complicated as Israel are in another league.
By Yisrael Ne'eman
Likud PM designate Benyamin Netanyahu is almost in as much trouble if he succeeds in putting together a Right/Religious coalition as opposed to failing in such a venture. After his overtures to the centrist Kadima party were rejected by chairwoman Tsipi Livni over disagreements concerning the "two-state" solution conflict resolution with the Palestinians and the possibility of prime ministerial rotation between the two, Netanyahu is left with only such a narrow coalition option. As such he is open to every form of political blackmail possible.
There is now an agreement with his largest coalition partner Yisrael Beiteinu (15 seats) which included the concession of the foreign ministry to party chairman Avigdor Leiberman along with another four portfolios, a seeming impossibility only three weeks ago when negotiations began. But troubles remain as Leiberman still prefers a partnership with Kadima thereby building a more centrist government at the last moment. On the home front, Netanyahu is increasingly under pressure in his own party, especially by Sylvan Shalom and supporters who expected the vice-premiership and foreign ministry to be theirs. Getting YB into the coalition is the easy part.
Netanyahu is said to be close to an agreement with the ultra-orthodox (haredi) Sephardi Shas (11 mandates) and will try to negotiate down their financial demands for subsidized housing, haredi schools/yeshivas and possibly even a separate education portfolio, increased funding for child allowances and the demand for military draft deferments. Except for the last demand, all this costs billions in an economy which is at least 10% short on tax collection for the as yet to be passed 2009 state budget. Luckily for the Likud Shas spiritual mentor Rabbi Ovadia Yosef will instruct the party to join the coalition, but obviously cannot betray the basic needs of the party electorate meaning the Likud will make all the major concessions necessary.
The Ashkenazi haredi United Torah Judaism (5 seats) faction consults the Council of Torah Sages and can be expected to put forth similar conditions to those of Shas but to settle for less compromises. Shas is a member of the outgoing government while UTJ is not and has proven over the years to be a more difficult junior coalition partner.
Up to here there are 58 mandates out of the 120 in the Knesset. To get to 61 is the biggest problem. The two remaining parties – the National Union (4) and Jewish Home (3) are politically and ideologically connected to the national religious movement and as such demand the legalization of any settlements deemed illegal, continuing settlement activity in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) costing billions and are firmly opposed to a two-state solution. Their foreign policy and settlement platforms vis-à-vis the Palestinians are red flags to the Americans and Europeans. Netanyahu needs at least one of these factions to form an extremely narrow Right/Religious coalition – a nightmare of a governing alliance both financially and in terms of political diplomatic cost. Regime stability is out of the question.
Only twice before has Israel had such Right/Religious coalitions with no centrists to moderate the equation. Only Menachem Begin's second government (1981-84) where Yitzchak Shamir took over after Begin's resignation in the summer of 1983 and Shamir's two year reign from 1990-92. Both governments faced financial and diplomatic pressures due to the demands of the haredi and hard line right wing factions, exactly as today.
Netanyahu knows the realities but is becoming a prisoner to his own rhetoric as leader of the "nationalist" wing in the Knesset. His only way out is also quite unpleasant as he must agree to a prime ministerial rotation agreement with Livni and Kadima while uttering the hated phrase "two-state solution" when explaining the foundations of conflict resolution with the Palestinians. It is one thing to project the image necessary to win an election but coalition building and ruling a country as complicated as Israel are in another league.