Getting the Coalition Wrong
05 April 2009
Very few commentators, including this one, expected an Israeli government like the one we have now. Although second time PM Benyamin Netanyahu was expected to win and have his choice between a Center Right coalition or a Right Religious one, the conglomerate outcome is somewhat of a surprise. Along with the Likud (27 seats) there is Yisrael Beitainu (15) led by Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman, the ultra-orthodox Shas faction (11), United Torah Judaism or UTJ (5), the Jewish Home party (3) and Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Labor party with supposedly 13 seats, bringing in a grand coalition of over 70 MKs. But in Barak's party it is unpredictable how many faction members will actually support the coalition.
Labor is the most interesting riddle as the party needed to decide whether to join the coalition or not. Close to 60% of the central committee voted "Yes" and Netanyahu had what he needed. Barak chocked up five ministries and several other jobs, far out of proportion to their numbers. But what difference does that make when there are 30 ministers in the most expensive and wasteful government ever glued together? Originally only six out of the 13 MKs were willing to support the Right/Religious government but cajoling (such as handing out jobs) drew two more supporters from the rejectionists, one of them the well respected economics professor and former president of Beersheva's Ben Gurion University, Avishai Braverman. If one counts in all of Labor the coalition has 74 seats, but if the Labor rebels are deducted from the tally there are 69. Netanyahu was able to bypass the extreme religious and right wing National Union (4) and replace them with at least half of Labor, thereby destroying the Left alternative social democratic opposition which could potentially mount a comeback should Netanyahu's capital incentive policies fail to stimulate an increasingly moribund Israeli economy buried in the world economic recession. On the Right he reinforced the split between the more practical Jewish Home party and the extremist NU who both draw from the same national religious reservoir of voters.
One must credit Netanyahu with superior tactical politics when handling coalition talks and agreements. The Likud broke the Left and the Right while leaving the centrist Kadima faction (28) led by chairwoman Tzipi Livni in the opposition. As mentioned in previous articles Netanyahu wanted Kadima in his coalition but was not able to bridge the gaps concerning declaring a "two-state solution" as the objective when working to achieve conflict resolution with the Palestinians, a clause held dear by Livni. There were also matters of electoral reform and a rotation agreement between Netanyahu and Livni whereby they would share the PM's office during the four year Knesset term.
As leader of the opposition Livni is also in a good position to criticize government waste (and already has) beginning with its bloated size and to skewer Netanyahu's economic policies despite the fact that Kadima holds very similar views. On the foreign front the Kadima opposition will not only make the new government look like steadfast opponents of a peace accord with the Palestinians but will certainly point out the massive international damage Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman will and already has caused through his bellicose statements about Israeli Arabs and Israel's Arab neighbors, in particular Egypt. There is certainly substance to much of what Leiberman claims but as foreign minister he is expected to be a diplomat. What Livni will downplay is that Yisrael Beitainu and Kadima are of one mind in openly supporting a two-state solution while the Likud knows it will come about in one form or another (certainly as preferable to a bi-national state) but refuses to use the terminology.
Livni is the unchallenged leader of the opposition since neither the Arab factions (11 seats together) nor the solidly leftist Zionist faction Meretz (3) or the NU (4) can mount any challenge or be seen as an alternative to the ruling coalition. Labor would have stood a chance but the party's self destruction button was pressed by Ehud Barak when it joined the coalition "in the national interest" and now it is just a matter of time until the founding party of the State of Israel virtually disappears. Barak could have allowed Labor to regroup in the opposition but he preferred to destroy his own party while claiming the necessity of his taking the defense portfolio. He could have left the party to do so, just as Moshe Dayan did with the foreign ministry in Menachem Begin's 1977 government.
But not all is rosy in Benyamin Netanyahu's second government. Leiberman is under serious police investigation for money laundering and other economic violations and may be charged within a few months. Inside the Likud, except for finance, there are virtually no serious cabinet ministries remaining after the great "give away" to glue together a coalition. Over the months one can expect restlessness among the Likud faction members and possible challenges to the PM himself. But most worrying is the economic situation as there is no 2009 state budget and projections estimate a 10 – 15% loss in state revenues due to a severe reduction in tax collection caused by the world economic crisis. In the meantime the state is still working by the 2008 state budget guidelines when tax revenues were plentiful and there was a surplus from 2007, meaning once there is a budget the country will be even further in the red.
The Likud has promised to cut taxes and raise benefits for all concerned. Many Netanyahu supporters have nicknamed him the "magician". It will be interesting to see how he will live up to his populist reputation.
Yisrael Ne'eman
Very few commentators, including this one, expected an Israeli government like the one we have now. Although second time PM Benyamin Netanyahu was expected to win and have his choice between a Center Right coalition or a Right Religious one, the conglomerate outcome is somewhat of a surprise. Along with the Likud (27 seats) there is Yisrael Beitainu (15) led by Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman, the ultra-orthodox Shas faction (11), United Torah Judaism or UTJ (5), the Jewish Home party (3) and Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Labor party with supposedly 13 seats, bringing in a grand coalition of over 70 MKs. But in Barak's party it is unpredictable how many faction members will actually support the coalition.
Labor is the most interesting riddle as the party needed to decide whether to join the coalition or not. Close to 60% of the central committee voted "Yes" and Netanyahu had what he needed. Barak chocked up five ministries and several other jobs, far out of proportion to their numbers. But what difference does that make when there are 30 ministers in the most expensive and wasteful government ever glued together? Originally only six out of the 13 MKs were willing to support the Right/Religious government but cajoling (such as handing out jobs) drew two more supporters from the rejectionists, one of them the well respected economics professor and former president of Beersheva's Ben Gurion University, Avishai Braverman. If one counts in all of Labor the coalition has 74 seats, but if the Labor rebels are deducted from the tally there are 69. Netanyahu was able to bypass the extreme religious and right wing National Union (4) and replace them with at least half of Labor, thereby destroying the Left alternative social democratic opposition which could potentially mount a comeback should Netanyahu's capital incentive policies fail to stimulate an increasingly moribund Israeli economy buried in the world economic recession. On the Right he reinforced the split between the more practical Jewish Home party and the extremist NU who both draw from the same national religious reservoir of voters.
One must credit Netanyahu with superior tactical politics when handling coalition talks and agreements. The Likud broke the Left and the Right while leaving the centrist Kadima faction (28) led by chairwoman Tzipi Livni in the opposition. As mentioned in previous articles Netanyahu wanted Kadima in his coalition but was not able to bridge the gaps concerning declaring a "two-state solution" as the objective when working to achieve conflict resolution with the Palestinians, a clause held dear by Livni. There were also matters of electoral reform and a rotation agreement between Netanyahu and Livni whereby they would share the PM's office during the four year Knesset term.
As leader of the opposition Livni is also in a good position to criticize government waste (and already has) beginning with its bloated size and to skewer Netanyahu's economic policies despite the fact that Kadima holds very similar views. On the foreign front the Kadima opposition will not only make the new government look like steadfast opponents of a peace accord with the Palestinians but will certainly point out the massive international damage Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman will and already has caused through his bellicose statements about Israeli Arabs and Israel's Arab neighbors, in particular Egypt. There is certainly substance to much of what Leiberman claims but as foreign minister he is expected to be a diplomat. What Livni will downplay is that Yisrael Beitainu and Kadima are of one mind in openly supporting a two-state solution while the Likud knows it will come about in one form or another (certainly as preferable to a bi-national state) but refuses to use the terminology.
Livni is the unchallenged leader of the opposition since neither the Arab factions (11 seats together) nor the solidly leftist Zionist faction Meretz (3) or the NU (4) can mount any challenge or be seen as an alternative to the ruling coalition. Labor would have stood a chance but the party's self destruction button was pressed by Ehud Barak when it joined the coalition "in the national interest" and now it is just a matter of time until the founding party of the State of Israel virtually disappears. Barak could have allowed Labor to regroup in the opposition but he preferred to destroy his own party while claiming the necessity of his taking the defense portfolio. He could have left the party to do so, just as Moshe Dayan did with the foreign ministry in Menachem Begin's 1977 government.
But not all is rosy in Benyamin Netanyahu's second government. Leiberman is under serious police investigation for money laundering and other economic violations and may be charged within a few months. Inside the Likud, except for finance, there are virtually no serious cabinet ministries remaining after the great "give away" to glue together a coalition. Over the months one can expect restlessness among the Likud faction members and possible challenges to the PM himself. But most worrying is the economic situation as there is no 2009 state budget and projections estimate a 10 – 15% loss in state revenues due to a severe reduction in tax collection caused by the world economic crisis. In the meantime the state is still working by the 2008 state budget guidelines when tax revenues were plentiful and there was a surplus from 2007, meaning once there is a budget the country will be even further in the red.
The Likud has promised to cut taxes and raise benefits for all concerned. Many Netanyahu supporters have nicknamed him the "magician". It will be interesting to see how he will live up to his populist reputation.