What began as an election between two factions within the Iranian power elite is now a major showdown pitting reformists led by presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi against the ultra conservative vested interests of the Supreme Council leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad the incumbent and declared winner of the June 12 elections.

Despite the official news blackout there is never ending commentary as riots sweep through Iran. Two questions remain: What do the reformists truly want? And what will be the government response as the situation gets increasingly out of hand?

Certainly Mousavi is dedicated to an Iranian Islamic republic. The reforms he envisioned and in particular women's rights are seen by the ultra-conservatives as threatening not only their power but as the first step in the downfall of the Iranian Islamist revolution of 1979. By allowing Mousavi to run in the elections the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei opened the "safety valve" to allow for an airing of complaints without considering what happens when the valve explodes and the reformist opposition actually wins the elections. Alleged vote rigging gave Ahmedinejad 63% of the vote with Mousavi receiving only 34%. Reformist supporters claim the figures should be reversed.

How much reform Mousavi's supporters demand is unclear. It is known that the candidate himself is a strong supporter of the Islamist regime including its belligerency to the West and the continuing efforts to gain nuclear weapons despite his domestic agenda. But what do the student demonstrators truly demand? Full open democratic elections including secular candidacy for all representative offices? Such demands may surface and undermine the foundations of the Iranian Islamic Republic should the protests continue and become more violent, step by step. Mousavi and like minded members of the reformers who come out of the original Khomeini revolution of thirty years ago may be swept aside by more radical popular demands.

On Friday Ayatollah Khamenei demanded an end to the opposition protests, threatening dire consequences - and no one listened. Compromise is now out of the question. Should the Supreme Council allow the demonstrations to continue, their absolutist Islamist rule representing "the Will of Allah" will be called into question. They gave less than a finger to popular discontent and now are being forced not only to concede an arm (new elections) but the whole body (regime overthrow) which could include the sweeping aside of Mousavi himself.

To stay in power Khamenei, Ahmedinejad, the Supreme Council and the hard line Islamists must use the maximum force necessary to break the demonstrations. Syria's Hafez el-Assad did so in 1982 when he crushed the Moslem Brotherhood revolt in Hama where at least 20,000 were killed (although some reports go as high as 38,000) as he sent tanks into the streets and flattened entire neighborhoods. Using the same Stalinist approach Saddam Hussein massacred hundreds of thousands of Kurds and Shiites before he was overthrown by the Americans, twenty years ago Chinese security forces attacked demonstrators in Tiananmen and in the recent past the generals have retained control in Myanmar over the protests of Buddhist monks and the general population

Or one can allow for a "velvet revolution" as seen recently in the Ukraine or Georgia - modeled on the fall of communism in Eastern Europe 20 years ago. For the Iranian regime there are no middle roads as "rising expectations" have soared out of control. Their "mistake" was in setting in motion the process of letting the voice of the people be heard. Non-religious democratic factors may begin to challenge not only the ultra-conservatives but also the reformers from within their own camp. Such it was in 1979 but then these non-Islamist factions were crushed within a year or so.

Khamenei and Ahmedinejad cannot allow for democracy unless they want to be out of a job (remember Mikhail Gorbochov and the fall of the Soviet Union?). In the dilemma between facilitating an opening to democracy or re-solidifying the Islamic republic they have no choice but to insist on the latter. Hence one should expect massive repression against the demonstrators and their leaders. Khamenei can reign in the protests by arresting Mousavi and his cohorts while repressing the demonstrations with lethal force well beyond the necessary as a message to anyone else who may think in democratic terms.

The Supreme Council knows a tipping point is being reached and within a short time there will be no point of return. For them not to crush the demonstrations is becoming tantamount to suicide.