30 November 2009

By Yisrael Ne'eman

Right wingers have been stunned by Israeli PM Benyamin Netanyahu's Palestinian policies since he took office this past March 31. Not only did he announce in his famous Bar Ilan speech that he advocated a two-state solution but now there is to be a building freeze (not including Jerusalem or public structures) for the next ten months in settlements across Israel's 1949-67 armistice line with the West Bank. Even former army chief of staff Moshe (Bogey) Ya'alon and right wing ideologue Benny Begin are favoring the move. The Palestinians may claim it is not enough and the Americans expected more, but in Israeli political terminology Netanyahu's concession is huge. The PM prefaced this latest policy announcement several weeks ago when explaining that should the Palestinians come to the table they will see that Israel will be very forthcoming.

What brought about this "shift in policy"? Netanyahu as a follower of the Revisionist thinker Zev Jabotinsky is intimately familiar with the latter's famous 1923 work "The Iron Wall" which puts off conflict resolution with the Arabs until they have no choice. Eventually the Arabs would agree whether they liked it or not, in other words Arab agreement would not be voluntary. Jabotinsky further believed the Jewish nation had enormous potential that had not yet been brought to bear in the battle for the Land of Israel, seeing military and economic strength as most important in determining the national future. Peace was postponed until an unknown future date. One would venture to say that Netanyahu certainly sees the world in a similar light. Just that he like Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert two Likud PMs (yes, we all know Olmert led Kadima but he first spent 40 years in the Likud) has hit a certain reality – Israel and the Jewish People have "no choice". Israel is approaching the height of her potential in military and economic abilities but it is not enough in the face of Palestinian demographic development, lack of European support, American pressure led by Pres. Barack Obama and especially the Iranian threat.

For close to a decade the Israeli secular Right (Likud) is the only game in town and just recently a Labor minister Benyamin (Fuad) Ben Eliezer drove that point home in an interview. In the 1980s the right wing Likud had an effective election slogan "Only the Likud Can", a message the Labor Party could barely counter even if the facts of the campaign would appear otherwise. Today Labor is a junior partner in a Likud led coalition, a political arrangement common to all Likud governments in the 2000s. The supposedly hard line PM Benyamin Netanyahu is no exception, even if his election campaign rhetoric of a year ago would leave one wondering where the two sides could bridge the gaps, something apparently achieved as Netanyahu's #2 man is Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the Labor Party Chairman.

Since the Palestinian Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) of 2000-04 the Left and the secular Right in Israel have blurred their differences concerning the Palestinian issue. Today, it is all a matter of degree. Sharon, a Likud PM was the first to publicly speak of a Palestinian State even if Labor PMs before him (Rabin, Peres and Barak) whispered a two-state solution behind closed doors. The vast majority of secular Jews in Israel are in favor of a Palestinian State in the West Bank provided it is demilitarized, exactly as advocated by Netanyahu. Left and Right differ over the percentage of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) to be ceded and over the tactical issues of just how much sovereignty should be given to the Palestinians in return for Israeli security even though this in coordination with the US and Europe.

Netanyahu agreed to the "Road Map" as presented by Pres. Bush in 2003. In the "Road Map" there are three steps: First the Palestinians halt all terrorism, draft a constitution, have free and open elections while Israel simultaneously halts construction across the 1967 lines and withdraws to the lines where its security forces stood prior to the LIC in Sept. 2000. Second there is a Palestinian State with temporary borders but with continuing development of sovereign institutions and security coordination with Israel. The final step involves agreement upon permanent borders, Jerusalem, security, refugee matters and all other outstanding issues. All this is done in cooperation with the Quartet (the US, UN, EU and Russia).

For the most part security has returned to the West Bank (Judea and Samaria) through the development of Gen. Dayton's pro-Fatah Palestinian security force and continued Israeli army anti-terror activities. The construction freeze is the Israeli reciprocal action as originally agreed to with Pres. Bush. Obama is enforcing a previous agreement and Netanyahu cannot object – hence Stage I. Without saying it, the understanding is to arrive at Stage II or a Palestinian State with provisional borders within ten months.

America, as Israel's patron and strategic ally believes the time for implementation is now. Netanyahu knows that Jabotinsky's much spoken of "Iron Wall" future is now. Interests have sharply intersected in particular due to the Iranian threat not only to exterminate Israel but to wreak havoc in the Arab world bringing anarchy to the oil markets. This could be a death blow to much of the already embattled world economy. The US, EU and moderate secular Arab states want the Palestinian issue moving towards a solution when confronting Ahmedinejad & Co. Today these far greater security concerns in the Middle East have overwhelmed the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Netanyahu has a much greater global scope of understanding than the rebellious right wing in the Likud or the religious Right hence his praise for the Americans and Obama most specifically during Sunday's press conference. So far Palestinian Pres. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) refuses to come to the negotiating table, demanding a construction halt in Jerusalem as well. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman declared his lack of interest in the Palestinian response while emphasizing the significance of the Israeli gesture proving that at this juncture peace with the Palestinians may be important but it is far from the major issue. Israel needs full American support against Iran and lining up with the Road Map is a step towards integrating within overall American Middle East policies.

Netanyahu's decision is beyond the tactical or even strategic, it is existential.